Why Windows 7 May Fail – Part I

November 7, 2009

Well, Microsoft has already released Windows 7 to the public now. Early returns look promising but are not outstanding, and most of that is based on the large amount of pre-release orders. The possibility of the success of the new operating system (OS) has been discussed at length. There are many new features and Microsoft listened to customers when improving on what Vista lacked or did very badly. However, it is possible that many people will be turned-off by the OS for many reasons. Those reasons will be discussed here…

First of all, it is too much like Windows Vista for many. After all, Windows 7 could be called Windows Vista Release 2 given all of the similarities. And, have you ever met anyone who said they loved Vista? Probably not, I would guess. Indeed, there may be people out there who like what Vista brought to them, but I doubt that they would not think that Windows XP was a better OS. To be fair, Vista was a terrible OS and it hogged memory, processor power, and was full of ‘bloatware’ – useless applications which must be installed but are never used. Microsoft made plenty of changes to Windows 7 to get past this – eliminating some applications, updating others – but will end-users see that when they work with the OS? Maybe, or maybe not. People who were annoyed with the User Account Control or the Aero interface might not know that these have been greatly improved; they may simply see these features, think “not Vista again”, and walk away.

Next, is the cost factor. Yes, Windows 7 will cost just about the same, and in some cases less, than Windows Vista did at launch. And, if you are running Vista, you will be able to run Windows 7. However, many people are still running XP, so to upgrade to Windows 7 they will have to buy new hardware. With people cutting back on spending in the current economy, will they be willing to buy an entirely new computer just to upgrade? It will depend on whether money is available for such spending and probably only if it is absolutely necessary. Let’s not forget that many businesses are still running XP as well…

In fact, according to a recent study (February of 2009), 71% of businesses are still running XP. That is a significant number of PCs! Windows XP is very stable and many of these businesses are quite happy with that OS and are unlikely to spend large sums of money to upgrade. Not only does the money figure into this, but also all of the work which IT departments would have to put in to handle the deployment of Windows 7. Most of these businesses will probably hold onto XP until Microsoft stops supporting it altogether, which happens in 2014.

Another reason is Microsoft’s continuing practice of releasing several versions of the Windows 7 OS when they really should just have one or two, at most. If you thought that the Professional version was the most fully featured version you are wrong; that would be Ultimate. And, this new Starter version makes it even more confusing – would a newbie to the Windows OS buy that version? Well, no, that version is for netbooks (small, purpose-built computers mainly for browsing the web and doing e-mail). The Premium version sounds like it would be the top of the line and most expensive; again, no, it is only one step above the Windows 7 Starter version. If only Microsoft would just sell two versions – a basic version which would work on netbooks and perform well on a full-sized PC and a Premium version which has every feature available – it would solve this nagging issue which first reared its ugly head with Windows XP and only became worse when Vista was released.

Of course, one HUGE problem with Windows 7 is that you cannot upgrade to it from XP without a big hassle. To do this upgrade, the user must use the Microsoft Deployment Toolkit 2010 to migrate settings and configurations. Once complete, a complete install of Windows 7 must be done – a complete reformat of the drive and then installation of the OS. Then you move your settings and configuration to the new OS. And, for Europe, due to the anti-trust case against Microsoft, no upgrade version will be sold – only the Full version will be available (supposedly, at the same price as the upgrade).

So, from this first part, we are left wondering if the new Microsoft OS will survive and sell well enough to become pervasive. Windows 7, as is evidenced in other articles, has been improved a great deal from the Vista release, but is it enough? In the second part, there are other issues which may cause the OS to sink instead of swim.

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